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Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season/1
Farewell It's about time that we start this section, since the EPac is shutting down for good. This year, unless we see a post-season surprise, we saw (counting the CPac) 21 depressions, 20 named storms, 9''' hurricanes, and '''1 major hurricane, and a total ACE of 71.9 (again, counting CPac). I'd say that we had an active season this year, although the ACE and number of majors was lackluster. Here's an overview of this season: In May, we saw 2 named storms and 1 hurricane, making it only the 5th time on record 2 storms formed in the month. June was inactive at the beginning, but near the end of the month, Cosme and Dalila formed, both peaking at C1 intensity (and Dalila crossed over to July). July was inactive, with only 3 storms forming in the month, Erick, Flossie, and Gil. Both Erick and Gil peaked as a C1, continuing a streak of C1s, and Flossie was a strong TS that did a rare Hawaiian landfall. Gil crossed over to August, the month that Henriette, Ivo, Juliette, and Kiko formed, as well as 3 freak CPac storms, Pewa, Unala, and 3-C. Henriette peaked as a C2 and was the strongest of the season till Raymond came along. Ivo and Juliette were just weakling fail TSs that barely affected land, and Kiko was only thought to have peaked as a strong TS before it was upgraded to a C1 hurricane in post-analysis. All of the 3 CPac storms crossed over into the WPac, achieving a rare feat which I don't think has ever happened before. Pewa peaked as a Severe Tropical Storm, Unala was a weak failure that was Pewa's lunch, and 3-C also became Pewa's dinner before it could do anything. Kiko crossed over into September, which was inactive IMO, with only Lorena and Manuel forming in the month. Lorena was a weak TS that brought some Mexican rain, and Manuel was a C1 that caused massive floods in Mexico, and has a chance of being retired next year. In October, the EPac became active again, with Narda, Octave, Priscilla, and Raymond forming in the month. Narda (TS) was a fail, Octave (TS) brought some slight rain to Baja, Priscilla (TS) was an epic, epic fail, and Raymond (C3) suddenly became the year's only major and the strongest of the season, it affected Mexico, and lasted a long time, restrengthening to a C2 before being gone for good. I'll say Raymond was my favorite storm in the EPac this year, as it put on a great entertainment show and was fun to watch during late October. Lastly, November was when the EPac put on one last show when Sonia formed on the first day of the month. It was just a weak TS that affected Mexico. So overall, it was a very impressive and awesome season that broke some records, and this season was more awesome then some of you think (despite the lack of majors). I don't think we will see anymore storms during the rest of this season, and this season will probably end with Sonia. So, let's all say farewell to what has been a cool season to track. I think we could see another active season next year, due to an El Nino that will probably come. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 02:52, November 23, 2013 (UTC) :Steven, I would have waited until November 30 to do this. Anyways, you did highlight the major points of this season. For the record, Manuel is the costliest EPAC tropical cyclone on record, surpassing Paul (1982). Also, here are some more records you missed: #We are tied with 1968, 1987, 1994, 2006, and 2009 as the seventh most active EPAC season on record in terms of total storms (20). #The May activity made 2012 and 2013 the only instance of back-to-back EPAC seasons producing two May storms. #Barbara was the easternmost-landfalling EPAC hurricane ever. #Flossie actually did not make a landfall on Hawaii. It just barely missed the islands. #I would disagree about Ivo. It caused quite some flooding damage in the Southwest (as far as I know). #Three CPAC-WPAC crossovers actually happened in 2002, but 2013 marks the only time three successive storms did so. #Pewa did peak as a typhoon per JTWC standards. #Raymond marked the latest date for an EPAC's season first major hurricane on record (counting CPAC). Overall, the 2013 EPAC seasons had more storms than last year and 2011 but fewer hurricanes and majors than the previous two seasons. If that El Nino pans out to be true, I expect this to happen. AndrewTalk To Me 21:07, November 23, 2013 (UTC) : Well, since the EPac is pretty much dead by now, I have nothing against starting this now. I'm impressed the season managed to crank out so many named storms, but the lack of ACE made it upsetting, with Raymond being the season's only major. However, I won't be forgetting the 2013 EPac season anytime soon, as Manuel marked for one of the worst known disasters in parts around Acapulco and Sinaloa. Flossie and Barbara are also some highlights, but neither of them were as severe as Manuel. Ryan1000 05:42, November 24, 2013 (UTC) :: Andrew, I have no problem in starting this now, since the EPac is pretty much dead anyways. I don't really care about those type of records, since I only mention the biggest and most memorable records that the season broke. I remember that the remnants of Ivo didn't even bring any rain to my house, although it was kinda humid outside and all cloudy. So I would still call it a fail, since it only peaked as a weak TS. I also didn't know Manuel was the costliest ''EPac storm on record! My chances of retirement are going straight up to 85%, I would have put it at 95% but it's only 85% because EPac retirements are completely random. So yeah, this season was very impressive overall, but the number of majors and the ACE was lackluster. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 01:39, November 26, 2013 (UTC) Eerie Comparison Okay, I know this section is slightly off-topic, but it relates to Eastern Pacific activity. Anyway, assuming 92E becomes a tropical storm and Mexico, I would just like to point out the following comparisons between 2007 and 2013 so far: *Both seasons had its first two storms form in May (and what is even creepier is that it is the same two names!) *Both seasons started off with a "Tropical Storm Alvin". *In both seasons, the storm named ''Alvin stayed out to sea. *In both seasons, the storm named Alvin reached a peak of 1003 mbar (however, the 2007 "Alvin" had peak winds of 40 mph, whereas the 2013 "Alvin" had peak winds of 50 mph). *In both seasons, the storm named Barbara formed in the last week of May. *In both seasons, the storm named Barbara made a landfall in Mexico. *Both seasons' third storm was a "Hurricane Cosme". If anyone has additional comparisons, or any comments and/or questions about the comparisons or even this section in general, please feel free to leave them below. AndrewTalk To Me 21:49, May 27, 2013 (UTC) : If only the Atlantic was in the same boat lol. We haven't even had Andrea yet there, but it's possible, according to GFS at ~284 hours, we could see Andrea pull a Barry '07. Ryan1000 00:26, May 28, 2013 (UTC) ::Barbara was a hurricane ................ YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 04:49, June 24, 2013 (UTC) :::I believe this comparison was made prior to Barbara even being named, so yeah. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 06:55, June 24, 2013 (UTC) :::No, I last updated my list when Barbara was a tropical storm. AndrewTalk To Me 17:59, June 24, 2013 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Now is the time to do this: *All - 0% - None of them are worth retiring. Isaac829 20:12, October 7, 2013 (UTC) Isaac, are you sure Manuel is not worth retiring? $925 million (2013 USD) and 84 deaths sounds like a candidate to me, even if Mexico never retires names. AndrewTalk To Me 11:07, October 8, 2013 (UTC) : Yeah, Manuel actually has a chance of retirement. The deaths and damage toll above, and also its flooding, make it a reasonable candidate for retirement. But if Mexico didn't retire Agatha, then Manuel could very well stay. EPac retirements can be completely random at times, and Mexico rarely retires names. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] [[Message Wall:Steven09876 #top|''T]] | 23:42, October 8, 2013 (UTC) ::Steven, Agatha was more Guatemala's problem than Mexico's. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:31, October 9, 2013 (UTC) :::Well, I just couldn't think of any better examples. :P What about Paul (1982) or Tico (1983)? Both of these hurricanes mainly affected Mexico and killed more than 100 people, but they weren't retired. Although most of Paul's deaths were in Guatemala and El Salvador when it devastated the countries as a tropical depression, it struck Mexico at peak intensity. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 22:36, October 10, 2013 (UTC) ::::Paul was likely snubbed because most of the impact occurred as a tropical depression. I am not sure why Tico did not go. Liza '76 is a good example of a storm that should have been retired. ~1,000 fatalities = out. AndrewTalk To Me 00:58, October 11, 2013 (UTC) ERMAHGERD!! My predictions. * Alvin? #No. WHAT A REAL CHIPMUNK lol * Barbara? #No. * Cosme #No. * Dalila? Hey there Dalila, hows it like near Mexico? A rather weak Category 1 not doing anything but spin fish? #NO. * Erick? #No. More to come... * flossie? Nah man * gill? Lazy fishy * HENRIETTE? Nah didn't do anything to Honolulu * pewa? Lol, no * uhnala? Uh, nala no. * Ivo? NAH MAN YOU FISH om nom nom * Juliette? TBA- you'd better please Romeo. Rara Hooves 20:28, July 4, 2013 (UTC) : I would personally still wait a little bit on this, unless Barbara turns out to be something big for Mexico. Ryan1000 01:05, May 29, 2013 (UTC) Now that we have a reasonable number of storms, I will post my predictions: #Alvin - 0% - Try again, Mr. Seville! #Barbara - 1% - Being the easternmost landfalling hurricane and causing four fatalities as well as $1 million (2013 USD) in damage is not enough, especially by Mexico's standards. #Cosme - 0.1% - Three fatalities will not convince Mexico to retire this name. #Dalila - 0.05% - The fact Dalila did not kill anyone hurts its chances. #Erick - 0.2% - 0.1% for the one fatality reported, the other 0.1% is to show my respect towards Erick for finally becoming a hurricane. #Flossie - 1% - Hawaii got a huge scare from the system, but it was not that bad at all in the end. #Gil - 0% - It did nothing special. #Henriette - 0% - Henriette may have broken our Category 1 streak, but it is staying. #Pewa - 0% - Similar to Unala, Tropical Depression Three-C, and Henriette, Pewa was a very interesting storm meteorologically, but impactwise, it should be long forgotten. #Unala - 0% - Unala was quite an interesting storm meteorologically. However, it became Pewa's lunch before doing anything. #Ivo - 0.01% - If previous serious storms to affect the Southwestern U.S. (Ignacio and Nora '97, Kathleen '76, Joanne '72, etc.) were not retired, Ivo should not. #Juliette - 0.01% - The lack of major impact from Juliette essentially means its staying. #Kiko - 0% - Despite becoming a weak hurricane, Kiko was a fail. #Lorena - 0.01% - See Juliette's section. #Manuel - 90% - This turned out to be quite the disaster in the end, coming back from the dead full force as a hurricane. $4.2 billion (2013 USD) 169 fatalities and all that deadly flash flooding makes it a near guaranteed retiree. If this storm hit the U.S., we would be looking at a storm with a 95 to 99 percent chance of retirement. Not even Ismael or Tico killed as many as Ismael. As much as I want Manuel to leave, keep in mind Karl caused $5.6 billion (2010 USD), but did not leave. #Narda - 0% - A complete fail. #Octave - 0.01% - See Juliette and Lorena's section. #Priscilla - 0% - An even worse fail than Narda. #Raymond - 2% - It broke our non-major streak, but the rainfall and two fatalities will probably not get it retired. #Sonia - 0.01% - See Juliette, Lorena, and Octave's sections. AndrewTalk To Me 17:20, July 9, 2013 (UTC) Here's my predictions! * Alvin - 0% - Hell no. * Barbara - 1% - 4 deaths and $1 million in damage ain't gonna do it. * Cosme - 0.5% - 3 deaths are not enough. * Dalila - 0% - Nope. * Erick - 0.6% - 0.5% for affecting Mexico, the other 0.1% is for Erick finally becoming a hurricane. * Flossie - 2% - Affected Hawaii, but it wasn't that bad. * Gil - 0% - Fishie. * Henriette - 0% - No. * Pewa - 0% - Didn't affect land. * Unala - 0% - Didn't do nothin'. Maybe cause Pewa ate this storm up for dinner. lol * Ivo - 0.5% - Not much impact, but it did bring a little moisture to my house as a remnant low. * Juliette - 0.1% - Romeo is mad at this failure. It just brought rain to Baja and nothing more. * Kiko - 0% - No land impacts. * Lorena - 0% - Another failure. * Manuel - 85% - Caused a whole bunch of flooding in Mexico and lots of deaths, and it's also the costliest EPac hurricane on record! I don't care what Mexico says, this storm needs to be retired, but since EPac retirements are completely random, there is still a slight chance it will stay. * Narda - 0% - And, we have yet another epic fail... * Octave - 0.5% - Brought rain to Baja, but it won't be retired. * Priscilla - 0% - EPIC FAILURE!!! It has to be said. * Raymond - 1% - Became the season's first (and probably the only) major hurricane, threatened Mexico and was an interesting storm overall, but it didn't cause much damage. * Sonia - 0.1% - Didn't do much in Mexico. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 19:03, July 20, 2013 (UTC) ---- STO12's Predictions: *ALVIN: 0% No impact whatsoever, no retirement here. *BARBARA: 20% Not enough impact to Mexico to cause a retirement. *COSME: 5% Far from land impact, no retirement for Cosme. *DALILA: 5% A weak hurricane, but off the coast of any land mass, no retirement. *ERICK: 15% Caused some impact to the Mexican coast, but not enough of an impact to create a retirement. *FLOSSIE: 10% Caused rare but minimal impact to Hawaii. Flossie isn't really retirement worthy. *GIL: 0% Just another addition to our streak of cat 1's, far from land too. *HENRIETTE: 0% Was certainly impressive to see it do what it did. But no retirement is to be arranged. Hopefully Henriette will impress us just as much in 2019. *PEWA: 0% A rare hurricane, but no retirement expected. *UNALA: 0% A rare weak storm that caused no impact to land. *IVO: 5% A weak tropical storm with a lot of moisture. No large impact. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 02:05, August 26, 2013 (UTC) ---- Ryan Grand Speaks: East Pacific: *Alvin - 0% - Sorry, which one was Alvin again? *Barbara - 4% - Deserves some respect for it's impacts in Mexico, but they hardly ever retire names... *Cosme - 1% - Caused indirect impacts due to it's massive size, but enough to retire? Nah. *Dalila - 1% - See Cosme. *Erick - 2% - 1% for the death, 1% for finally becoming a hurricane. *Flossie - 10% - Some impacts on Hawaii, but nothing too severe. *Gil - 0% - Turned out to be a fish. *Henriette - 0% - Became a cat. 2, but no impacts on land. *Ivo - 1% - No impacts on land while tropical, but the remnants did cause some impact in Arizona. *Juliette - 3% - Some impact to Baja, but not enough to retire. *Kiko - 0% - Impressed us with that little stint of intensification, but you know the drill. No impacts, no retirement. *Lorena - 1% - Flooded southern Baja a little, but definitely not enough to retire. *Manuel - 90% - Quite the flooding in Acapulco, even more in Sinaloa. As many as 169 deaths, and possibly over 4 billion dollars in damage, I think this could easily be retired...but Mexico has been pretty poor on nominating. *Narda - 0% - More like nada. *Octave - 10% - Probably not too severe. *Priscilla - 0% - I've heard of failures before, but this? Seriously? *Raymond - 1% - Caused some minor impacts, but mostly remained offshore. *Sonia - 1% - Damage, if any, won't warrant retirement. Central Pacific: *Pewa - 0% - Persisted longer than I thought, but nontheless, it stayed at sea. *Unala - 0% - Pewa ate her up. Those are my calls. Ryan1000 16:14, July 28, 2013 (UTC) I'm just gonna give every single storm 42%, because we have absolutely zero idea what the WMO will do in the EPAC. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:28, July 28, 2013 (UTC) : Yeah, some EPac retirements are completely random (Knut of 1987 taking the cake), but I hope the WMO is more serious with storms from now on. I could see Flossie getting retired if it is severe enough for Hawaii. Ryan1000 00:15, July 29, 2013 (UTC) ::I'm not so sure if Flossie will make landfall anymore because the NHC predicted for her to make landfall on a previous prediction, then she was predicted to veer north on the next prediction (but will still make landfall), and on the latest advisory image it looks like it will brush the state instead of making landfall. Jeffrey was here What's your iOS operating system? 06:43, July 29, 2013 (UTC) ::Alvin: 0% fish ::Barbara:2% death nor damage was enough ::Cosme:0% not effects in any place aside from waves ::Dalila: 0% She was one of the smallest tc in the Epac and his bro Cosme was one of the biggest aside from that nothing at all. ::Erick 0% nop another fish ::Flossie:5% damage in Hawaii was from minimal to non existant.not even a landfall occur ::Gil 0% fa-fa-fai-fai-fail,fail fail ::Henriette:0% No my dear you are staying with the other 7 names that have been use,better luck next time. ::Ivo 0% and one of the worst and scariest name of the list was an EPIC FAIL. ::Juliette. 1% for the person dead but I should give her a 0% another fail ::Kiko 0% It challenge the NHC in intensity but nothing more.He is staying ::Lorena 1% And the failings in this basin continues ::Manuel.85% I would put it at 95%if it was another country but knowing Mexico he might very well stay after what happen with Karl and Alex was unexcusable.If this stay I would be sad but no surprise nor shock.The rain it left over Guerrero are discribe as the worst ever record in the area.He needs to be gone,Its a toss up right now because of Mexico lack of retirements.Also this cause 4.5billion less than Karl but if its retire it might mean that Mexico care more of deaths than damage we will see soon. ::Narda: 0% such a dissappointment. ::Octave:0% Fail ::Priscila:0 Another fail in here ::Raymound;??? ::CPAC ::Pewa 0% ::Unala 0% ::Allanjeffs 13:38, August 1, 2013 (UTC) I'm just gonna list the storms that did real impact # Barbara 3% aint gonna happen # Cosme 1% No. Fat system, but this isn't the AUS. # Erick 1% Should go, but no # Flossie 20% Actually, it has a better chance than some of you think. Hawaii requested Daniel 06 and Kenneth 05 after all. # Ivo 2% Some flooding to the SW, but ther'es been worse # Juliette 1% One died, but that's about it. # Kiko 1% Fun storm, but impact next to nothing # Lorena 1% A crapper version of Kiko. # Manuel 50% Really don't know what to expect. (see below) # Octave 1% Epic storm, but no # Raymond 2% See above # Sonia 1% Love this storm, but again, no. Very late landfall though. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 22:36, August 18, 2013 (UTC) And they were still not retire,if Agatha that kill hundreds didn`t go there is no excuse for Flossie to leave.Allanjeffs 16:33, August 19, 2013 (UTC) Actually, Allan, that is not exactly true. The EPAC is the basin the WMO randomly retires names from. Alma was retired, but not Agatha. They retired Ismael, but not Norbert or Jimena. They retired Kenna, but not Liza, Madeline, or Lane. They retired Pauline, but not Tara. AndrewTalk To Me 18:07, August 19, 2013 (UTC) : Some retirements from the WMO seem random for EPac, but Flossie's chances of retirement are still slim. Just because some random names like Fefa of 1991 were retired doesn't mean Flossie will be. I have doubts it will happen, but it's not impossible. 'Ryan1000' 21:08, August 19, 2013 (UTC) : Alma was retire because it caused heavy damage in Nicaragua,Costa Rica and my country (Honduras) damage was considerable in two of the three.Ismael,Kenna and Pauline all have make a lot of damage,and the ones you mention shouls have been retire too.I will add Rick the same year as pauline many in Mexico suffer more than him than with Pauline and still was not retire.I believed Fefa was retired because it means something in Hawaiian or other language that means something for them,like what happen with Israel and Adolph.Allanjeffs 12:43, August 20, 2013 (UTC) ::: Fefa could've been retired for being a threatening storm for Hawaii, like Hawaii nominated Daniel '06 and Kenneth '05, but unlike Fefa, they were turned down retirement. Alma caused some damage in parts of Central America, but the damage Alma caused was clearly much less than Agatha of 2010 and even Aletta of 1982 (which didn't make landfall) but neither of them were retired while Alma was. Some of them should've been retired, I disagree that Rick was that bad for Mexico although it was immensely powerful, but storms like Tara 1961, and Kathleen/Liza/Madeline of 1976 should've been retired, but they weren't. Tico of 1983 and/or Lidia and Norma of 1981 were also snubs to an extent. 'Ryan1000' 21:52, August 20, 2013 (UTC) ::: Agatha was not retire because it was not nominate by Guatemala,Alma was retire because Honduras and Nicaragua are more loosely in retirement as they do so more than Guatemala.So they may have ask for the name.Paul should have retired too but I understand it wasn`t because it was only a td when affecting El Salvador.I am not sure if a td that kill thousands or hundreds can be retire after affecting a country can be retire later when they become a ts and don`t affect another landmass.Allanjeffs 01:15, August 21, 2013 (UTC) :::::(I know this thread is dead) :P Being a TD FTR is irrelevant. But regarding Paul, Central America was at war during that era, so that's worth noting. Aletta 82 is up there along with Paul in terms of it needed to be retired. Norma 81 isn't a real snub, Lidia 81 and Tico 83 are. Though I think Liza is the GOAT snub. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 00:45, February 1, 2014 (UTC) Post-season changes Alvin has a TCR, and upped to 60 mph.--Isaac829 03:20, August 8, 2013 (UTC) : 2nd southernmost TC on record for EPac, behind 1983's Adolph. 'Ryan1000' 12:30, August 8, 2013 (UTC) ::: Barbara's is out, not much is new. 'Ryan1000' 06:10, August 16, 2013 (UTC) ::::It was reassessed to be slightly stronger than operationally estimated, though. 70 kts/983 mbar is the new peak intensity, versus the 65 kt/990 mbar operational peak. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 17:54, August 19, 2013 (UTC) ::::(Erick) was a remanent low six hours earlier and it its pressure was dropped from 984 to 983.Allanjeffs 21:12, August 28, 2013 (UTC) ::::Nothing's too special about Erick. It did kill two, however. AndrewTalk To Me 21:47, August 28, 2013 (UTC) :::::Cosme is out. Its pressure was lowered slightly from 981 mbar to 980 mbar, it became post-tropical while still at tropical storm strength, and it held on to hurricane status for 6 hours longer than operationally estimated in the ATCF file. Not much else has changed. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 18:57, September 26, 2013 (UTC) KIKO IS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ACCORDING TO POST STORM ANALYSIS! WOOOOO!!!! POTATOES ARE AWESOME BECAUSE I'M A BANANA 19:34, November 5, 2013 (UTC) Da Floss is out too. POTATOES ARE AWESOME BECAUSE I'M A BANANA 19:37, November 5, 2013 (UTC) :Yippee! I've seen ATL storms be upgraded to minimal hurricanes in post-analysis (most recently Nate '11), but this is the first case I've seen in the EPAC. Kiko's ACE is up to 2.1, and the new intensity is 65 kt/989 mbar, making us 20-9-1. Not much change to Flossie, but its ACE is up slightly to 4.2225. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:13, November 5, 2013 (UTC) ::I'm glad Kiko got the upgrade. We now have nine hurricanes, one less than last year. As for Flossie, it also came really close to hurricane intensity. Its pressure has been lowered to 994 mbar (hPa). Hopefully, we can see some more major upgrades soon! AndrewTalk To Me 01:16, November 6, 2013 (UTC) ::::Not bad, I thought Kiko might have been a hurricane briefly earlier, looks like NHC confirmed it. Flossie's TCR states one man was injured and about 10,000 homes lost power. Wasn't too severe I guess. 'Ryan1000' 01:37, November 6, 2013 (UTC) ::::Ring-ding-ding-ding-dingeringeding! Gering-ding-ding-ding-dingeringeding! Gering-ding-ding-ding-dingeringeding! WE HAVE A NEW TCR!!! YES THAT'S RIGHT, PREPARE YOUR CHEEKS, we have a storm that says nada. POTATOES ARE AWESOME BECAUSE I'M A BANANA 23:34, November 14, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Lol, yeah Narda's out. Nothing special with it though, I'm waiting for Manuel. Want to know what the NHC says about it's impacts. 'Ryan1000' 00:24, November 15, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Lol, Liz, you ''had to sing this song, didn't you? :P Anyway, nothing's special with Narda, and I'm waiting on Manuel and Raymond's TCR. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 01:59, November 15, 2013 (UTC) Ivo and Octave are out now. Ryan1000 20:29, December 3, 2013 (UTC) :Dalila's TCR is now out. It's peak intensity was upped to 70 knots/984 mbar. AndrewTalk To Me 14:14, December 14, 2013 (UTC) ::Lorena, Manuel, Raymond, and Sonia have TCR's now as well. Lorena's peak intensity was raised to 45 knots (50 mph)/1002 mbar (hPa), although SAB estimates show a peak windspeed of 55 knots (65 mph). Sonia's peak intensity was raised to 40 knots (45 mph)/1002 mbar (hPa) and two fatalities were confirmed from the system. A trivia fact about Sonia is that it was only the third November landfalling EPAC system on record (after, I believe, Tara in 1961 and Rick in 1997). Manuel was not very well forecast. The NHC dropped its predecessor wave from the TWO for a while and poorly forecasted Manuel's formation. Its re-burst into a hurricane was also not expected; Manuel is the only EPAC system on record to make landfall over Mexico as a tropical storm, degenerate, and come back from the dead as a full-force hurricane. As for impact, rainfall exceeded 40 inches in Acapulco, and this rain overall killed 102 people directly and caused insured losses of $4.2 billion (2013 USD), the costliest EPAC hurricane on record. Also, the pressure of the hurricane was lowered to 983 mbar (hPa), while its winds of 65 knots (75 mph) were not change. Raymond was also not very well forecast; the NHC did not expect those intensity jumps the hurricane performed. There was some flooding in Mexico from Raymond, but it was nowhere near Manuel's. Lastly, the hurricane's pressure was raised to 951 mbar (hPa), while its winds remain at 110 knots (125 mph). AndrewTalk To Me 14:18, January 24, 2014 (UTC) :::Yay, Manuel and Raymond's TCR have been released! With Gil, Henriette, Juliette, and Priscilla still remaining, looks like I lost in the betting pools. :( Steven09876 02:05, January 25, 2014 (UTC) Replacement names Okay, I know this may be a little premature for me to start now, especially for an EPAC season, but Manuel has killed 83 people, more than Alma or Kenna ever did. I also understand Manuel primarily affected Mexico, was has a bad track record of retirement. However, neither of those excuses will stop me from starting to making this section. Here are my top 10 replacements for Manuel: #'Mario' (on the PAGASA naming lists) #Maurice #Mort (was used in 1997 in the WPAC) #Martin (was used in 1997 in the SPAC) #Miguel (Spanish version of Michael, which is on the Atlantic List IV) #Maximino #Mateo #Modesto #Melchor #Macario Also, here are my top three picks for Flossie, if by some odd chance, Hawaii requests it for retirement: #'Faith' (used in 1947 and 1998 in the WPAC + 1966 in the Atlantic) #Flo (was the name of a monster typhoon in the WPAC in 1990) #Fauna If anyone else wants to suggest replacement names for Manuel, Flossie, or any of the other EPAC names this season, please feel free to do so. AndrewTalk To Me 01:52, September 21, 2013 (UTC) :Keep in mind that Mexico's most recent fatality snub, Alex '10, killed as many as 73 people, and Manuel has beaten that number. I think that the reason Manuel may get away with it is less because it's Mexico and more because it's EPAC, home to the Aletta '82, Tico '83 and Agatha '10 snubs. I think Mark would be a good name for a hurricane, but maybe not as a replacement for Manuel due to EPAC's focus on Spanish names, so I'll agree with Andrew's choice of Mario, with Mateo being a close second. Francesca could also be a good replacement for Flossie, but then again, it could be deemed too similar to Frances, which was retired from the Atlantic lists after the 2004 season. Faith, as also pointed out by Andrew above, may be better. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:52, September 21, 2013 (UTC) :The Epac that should use only spanish names should change Manuel to the following :Mario :Marco :Marcos :Manny (nickname for Manuel)but it they can change Rita with Rina then this one is possible :Martin :Mauricio :Miguel have a good chance imo :Milton :Mateo which should have been the retirement for Mitch. :Allanjeffs 06:24, September 21, 2013 (UTC) Dylan, Francesca was previously used in the EPAC in 1966, 1970, and 1974, but I agree it is a little similar to Frances and therefore not get used. Allan, Marco is already on Atlantic List VI (remember this puny guy?). Marcos could be used, considering Marie, on Pacific List VI, and Maria, on Atlantic List III, are both on the Atlantic/Pacific naming lists right now. AndrewTalk To Me 11:33, September 21, 2013 (UTC) Uh, uh, uh, here they are! *'Malik ' *'Mancel ' *'Maron ' *'Marques ' *'Martel ' *'Marvin ' *'Michael ' *'Mikal ' *'Montel ' *'Montell ' *'Montez' *Mason *Miguel *Miguelito *Mario I got these M names from Name Yo Baby. Like any of them? And here are the name replacements for Flossie, should Hawaii kick her out! Fajah Fawn Francelle And now from NameYoBaby! Anyway, sorry for the tables being extremely long, but in my opinion, the replacement name does not need to be within the same language (Portugese and English = Manuel and Flossie.) Like for example, Ivan (Russian) -> Igor (Russian) -> Ian (English), Hugo (English) -> Humberto (Italian), Rita (English) -> Rina (Hindu), Iris (English) -> Ingrid (Swedish). HAHA, the fun has been doubled! 19:32, September 21, 2013 (UTC) Yes, replacement names do not need to be in the same origin as their predesscor (e.g. Luis - Lorenzo). Anything not related to Michael/Matthew/Mitch/Marco/Marty/Max would be fine for Manuel, and anything not related to Fefa/Felicia/Fernanda/Fran/Frances/Flora/Florence/Fiona/Fifi would be fine for Flossie. I would prefer a Spanish name for Manuel, but the WMO has proven to chose almost anything for a retiree's replacement. AndrewTalk To Me 20:45, September 21, 2013 (UTC) Geez, these tables are sooo long. But anyway, here are my top 10 replacements: Manuel #Mateo #Mario #Marcos #Maurice #Miguel #Martin #Melchor #Modesto #Marcel #Matthias I don't think Flossie will be retired, but here are my top 5 replacements for Flossie: Flossie #Flora #Fatima #Fallon #Francine #Flavia [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 01:08, September 22, 2013 (UTC) : I'm not expecting Flossie to be retired, but if it is by some random chance, I'd replace it with Flora. And it's not premature to begin this now Andrew, Manuel has a pretty decent chance of retirement, and even if it's only one name, it's enough to discuss replacement names for it (like Isaac of last year in ATL). I'd pick Mateo for Manuel, knowing it's a Spanish name and a pretty popular one. And Dylan, don't forget Tara 1961 and Liza 1976 snubs on Mexico's behalf. :( Their retirement track record really is poor. Ryan1000 01:12, September 24, 2013 (UTC) ::I agree that Tara and Liza should have been retired, but I only mentioned names from the current naming rotation to stick on the safe side, since the only retired names are from 1982 (Iwa) onwards. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:55, September 24, 2013 (UTC) Retirements at a glance, part 2 Just like in the Atlantic, I will give my updated predictions for the Eastern Pacific. *''Manuel - 80%'' *Flossie - 0.5% *Barbara - 0.01% *All others - 0% AndrewTalk To Me 22:25, December 1, 2013 (UTC) I posted these predictions a couple hours ago in the original retirement predictions section, so I've deleted them from there and am re-posting them here: "I said earlier that I wouldn't do this for the EPAC because their retirements are completely random, but I've changed my mind. These things are fun to do: *Alvin: 0% - Low latitude won't earn you retirement. *Barbara: 5% - Set records for its early impacts and how far east it hit at hurricane strength, but those impacts were less than severe. *Cosme: 2% - 3 indirect fatalities, but that's it. *Dalila: 0% - Loitered offshore. *Erick: 3% - 2% for the minor impacts, and a bonus percent for being the first Hurricane Erick ever. *Flossie: 10% - Rare Hawaiian impact, but didn't cause much harm. *Gil: 0% - It became a hurricane... and that's it. *Henriette: 0% - Stronger than Gil (and every other storm this year except for Raymond), but pretty much along the same lines. *Pewa: 0% - Only memorable because it was a CPAC storm, and crossing into the WPAC helped too. *Unala: 0% - "Om nom nom," said Pewa. *Ivo: 3% - Caused a fatality and brought moisture to the southwestern United States. Not enough. *Juliette: 2% - For the fatality. Not much to speak of, otherwise. *Kiko: 0% - Put on an impressive burst of intensification that briefly took it to hurricane strength, but it remained well away from land, so no. *Lorena: 1% - Unlike Juliette, Lorena didn't even have a fatality to its name. *'Manuel:' 70% - Horrific flooding in Acapulco and additional destruction in Sinaloa. I'm erring on the low side because not only is it Mexico, but it's the EPAC as well; but $4.2 billion in damage and 169 deaths makes Manuel one of the worst storms the EPAC has ever produced and Mexico's worst in a long time, and it absolutely deserves retirement. *Narda: 0% - :( *Octave: 1% - :/ *Priscilla: 0% - >:( *Raymond: 3% - Best storm to track in the entire WHEM this year, but the impacts were too light to merit retirement. *Sonia: 1% - Octave 2: Electric Boogaloo." --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:45, December 1, 2013 (UTC) Here's my updated retirement predictions: *Alvin - 0% - Early season fail. *Barbara - 3% - Affected Mexico, but impacts weren't severe. *Cosme - 1% - It became a hurricane and caused 3 indirect fatalities, but no. *Dalila - 0% - Meh. *Erick - 1.5% - 1% for the impacts, and an additional 0.5% for finally becoming a hurricane. *Flossie - 2% - Impacted Hawaii, but it wasn't that bad. *Gil - 0% - Became a hurricane and that's it. *Henriette - 0% - 2nd strongest of the season (after Raymond), but it still didn't do anything on land. *Pewa - 0% - First CPac storm since 2010's Omeka, but it didn't affect land. *Unala - 0% - Pewa's lunch. "That was yummy!", said Pewa. *Ivo - 1% - It's remnants affected my house, but it only caused cloudiness. It only caused very minimal impact on land, so no retirement here. *Juliette - 0.5% - Didn't do much. *Kiko - 0% - It pulled tricks on us by rapidly strengthening to a hurricane, but it didn't affect land. *Lorena - 0.5% - See Juliette. *Manuel - 85% - Disastrous flooding in Mexico and lots of damage and deaths, this could easily be retired if Mexico wasn't so conservative on retiring names. *Narda - 0% - Epic fail! *Octave - 0.1% - See Juliette. *Priscilla - -1% - The biggest fail of the season. Congratulations. *Raymond - 3% - Fun storm to track and the year's only major, but it did only a little bit of impact. *Sonia - 0.5% - See Juliette. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 23:24, December 1, 2013 (UTC) Well, looks like the EPac season is well over. Here are my final retirement predictions: East Pacific: *Alvin - 0% - Early-seasoner, but nothing noteworthy with this one. *Barbara - 7% - some damage, some deaths, but retirement-worthy? No, especially not for Mexico. *Cosme - 1% - Caused some coastal flooding, but that's it. *Dalila - 0% - Not much can be said about this one. *Erick - 2% - 1% for the impacts in Mexico, another 1% as respect for finally becoming a hurricane after 30 years. *Flossie - 3% - It caused some minor flooding in Hawaii, but it's probably not enough to retire. *Gil - 0% - Became a hurricane. What else? *Henriette - 0% - See Gil. *Ivo - 2% - Only minor impacts at most. No. *Juliette - 1% - No. *Kiko - 0% - Became a hurricane (discovered post-season, which is rare for EPac), but otherwise no. *Lorena - 1% - Sigh... *Manuel - 90% - Killed over 100 people and caused over 4 billion dollars in damage, but it's not getting a 100% because Mexico has a poor track record of retiring names. *Narda - 0% - Well, this'' is'' 2013... *Octave - 1% - Minor at most. *Priscilla - Epic fail% - Nuff said. *Raymond - 4% - Only major of the year, lasted a while, and was decent to track. But for impacts, there wasn't that much. *Sonia - 1% - See Octave. Central Pacific: *Pewa - 0% - First CPac storm in three years, but not getting retired. *Unala - 0% - Became Pewa's lunch. No. That sums it up. Ryan1000 01:41, December 16, 2013 (UTC)